AbbVie (ABBV) to Report Q1 Earnings: What’s in the Cards? – April 22, 2024


AbbVie (ABBV Free Report) will report first-quarter 2024 results on Apr 26, before market open. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 1.09%.

Factors to Consider

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AbbVie’s total revenues stands at $11.99 billion, while our estimate is $11.93 billion.

AbbVie’s top line is being driven by sales of new immunology drugs, Skyrizi and Rinvoq. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Skyrizi sales is pegged at $1.97 billion, while the same for Rinvoq stands at $1.05 billion.

Our model estimates for Skyrizi and Rinvoq sales are pegged at $1.93 billion and $1.00 billion, respectively.

This strength in revenue of both these drugs is mainly driven by approvals of the drugs in new indications. With these approvals, sales of these drugs could be higher in 2024 and potentially replace the company’s flagship drug, Humira, which has been facing generic erosion in the United States since last year. The drug lost exclusivity in ex-U.S. territories in 2018. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Humira sales is pegged at $2.23 billion, while our estimate stands at around $2.24 billion.

We expect J&J-partnered Imbruvica sales to decline due to novel oral therapies hurting the drug’s sales. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimates for the drug’s sales are pegged at $727 million and $722 million, respectively.

Roche-partnered Venclexta sales are likely to rise as new patient starts are expected to improve. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimates for the drug’s sales are pegged at $577 million and $579 million, respectively.

Management has also been heavily investing in the company’s oncology portfolio. In February, AbbVie completed the acquisition of ImmunoGen for $10.1 billion. The acquisition added Elahere, a first-in-class antibody-drug conjugate (ADC), which recently received full approval from the FDA in platinum-resistant ovarian cancer (PROC).This drug is the first and the only ADC approved for ovarian cancer.

Sales of the neuroscience franchise have shown strong growth in recent quarters, with sales likely to be driven by the recently approved migraine drugs — Ubrelvy and Qulipta. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for neuroscience product sales is pegged at $1.93 billion, while our model estimate stands at around $1.95 billion.

In the aesthetics franchise, we expect overall sales to rise slightly as we expect a slight recovery in demand for Botox and Juvederm sales, each of which is a key driver of sales for AbbVie. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for aesthetics product sales are pegged at $1.34 billion and $1.35 billion, respectively.

Key Development in Q1

Last month, AbbVie entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Landos Biopharma (LABP Free Report) for a total purchase consideration of up to $212 million. The acquisition, if successfully closed, will add Landos’ lead pipeline candidate, NX-13, which is a first-in-class, oral NLRX1 agonist in mid-stage development for the treatment of ulcerative colitis (UC). The deal, which is expected to strengthen AbbVie’s inflammatory and autoimmune disease portfolio, is expected to close in the second quarter of 2024.

Earnings Surprise History

AbbVie’s performance has been impressive, with its earnings beating estimates in each of the trailing four quarters. The company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 2.34%, on average.

 

In the past year, AbbVie’s shares have gained 7.4% year to date compared with the industry’s 8.6% growth.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for AbbVie this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here, as you will see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: AbbVie has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% as both the Most Accurate Estimate and Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at $2.26 per share.

Zacks Rank: AbbVie currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Stock to Consider

Here are a few stocks worth considering from the healthcare space, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +123.86% and a Zacks Rank #2.

Shares of Sarepta Therapeutics have gained 19.9% in the year-to-date period. Earnings of Sarepta beat estimates in each of the last four quarters, delivering an average earnings surprise of 464.56%.

CytomX Therapeutics (CTMX Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +188.89% and a Zacks Rank #3.

CytomX Therapeutics’ stock has risen 7.7% year to date. CTMX beat earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters while missing the mark on one occasion. On average, CytomX delivered an earnings surprise of 57.94% in the last four quarters.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.


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